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What's about to happen to the Real Estate Market ?

By Paul Zammit

We watch the Market like a Stock Broker - I am constantly asked were the market is headed.

Heres whats about to happen

1 Sellers will start to withdraw from the market in the next 30 days - They will become sick if you will of the negativity.

2. Buyers will have less properties to choose from. (As hard as that is to believe)

3. Rates will come down to help kick start the market.

4. Supply and demand will mean that we may head back to a neutral to Sellers market for a very short period of time in the next 60 days for a period of say 30 days.

5. Corporations will be transferring employees more that ever this year and they will be buying homes during the months of December and January, so watch out for those relos !

Our Recommendation if you are a Seller - Stay on the market ! If being on the market during the holidays is bothersome I think taking the sign down from Dec 10th till Jan 10th is probably a smart thing to do to avoid social negativity during the peaceful fast approachingng holiday season.

If you are a buyer - think long term - unless you are selling in the next year be concerned about a falling market re price, but if you are buying and holding onto your real estate for 4 to 5 years you virtually won't be losing any money because the market pricing will come back in full force and effect by then.

In the meantime, stay positive, stay lean, keep smiling and keep the economy moving and build equity !!

Paul

Toronto June Market Balancing Out

TREB Members reported 8,600 sales in June, TREB President Maureen O’Neill announced today. “Sales were down 18 per cent from the 2007 total of 10,451, which was the best performance ever for that month,” noted the president. “Nevertheless, the 8,600 figure is the fifth best June on record, and indicative of an active, healthy market.”

Sales within the City of Toronto totaled 3,481, down 18 per cent from the 4,238 recorded in June 2007. Sales within the 905 suburbs, at 5,119, were also down 18 per cent from the 6,213 recorded during the same period last year.

On the pricing front, June’s GTA average came in at $395,866. This was up four per cent over the $381,963 recorded during June of 2007. Prices increases were roughly equivalent in both the City of Toronto and the surrounding suburbs. Within Toronto, prices averaged $433,082, up three per cent over the $421,139 recorded in June of 2007. Within the 905 suburbs, the average price came in at $370,559, up four per cent over the $355,240 recorded during the same period last year.

“With summer coming, and a 22 per cent increase in inventory to nearly 27,000 this June over last, the market is slowly shifting towards balance after several years of favouring sellers,” said the President.

Breaking down the total, 3,357 sales were reported in TREB’s 28 West districts and averaged $374,043; 1,483 sales were reported in the 14 Central districts and averaged $518,471; 1,697 sales were reported in the 23 North districts and averaged $430,498; and 2,063 sales were reported in TREB’s 21 East districts and averaged $314,755.

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I would bet that every real estate agent could tell you a story about a home that they have attempted to show to a client where they didn't even get inside the door because the buyer was completely turned off by something they found offensive.   Happily, most of us are proud of our homes and take good care of them but these stories only reinforce the power of the first impression.  You are trying to sell your home for the best possible dollar and to do that you will need to appeal to the widest possible range of buyers.   That is to say, the more people that your home appeals to the more likely it is that your home will sell for more money – and faster as well.

So, how do you create your home's best first impression?  (And by the way, most buyers spend less than 30 minutes in a home before they submit an offer and considering the significance of the purchase, one might say that most buyers only have first impressions!)

That's where I come in.  I will visit your home and provide you with the information and an objective opinion necessary for you to create the best possible environment for the sale of your home.   My background gives me the ability to see your home from two perspectives; as a designer I draw on my Masters degree in Architecture and 12 years as a professionally accredited Interior Designer and president and owner of a successful and respected firm; as a real estate sales representative I get exposure to what buyers see and, more importantly, what makes them want to make offers on homes. 

Contact Brian Schindler at 416-723-5023 or email brian@zammit.com

What’s Going on With Toronto’s Real Estate Market?

"?" Yes, it's apparent that the market is not moving at a pace we would all like to see, but let's not cloud judgement yet on the future of Toronto Real Estate.

While the Toronto Real Estate Board announced a startling 22% drop in sales in March, some economists say that  Ontario is on the brink of a recession, which will be short lived thanks to Ontario’s healthy real estate market.

So what’s really going on? Is the market ‘cooling down’, heading for a US style collapse, or is our real estate market healthy?

Apparently, this drop involves sales volume and not average pricing. It could be from supply and demand, a speculative bubble burst, home owners defaulting on their mortgages, new mortgage products like extended amortization or what people see in the market. Boom and bust markets play a key role in the consumers purchasing trends.

Whatever the cause, it doesn’t seem that this decline will have a major impact on Toronto’s real estate market since there has not been a major decrease in housing prices between 1992 and 1998. Most homes only saw a slight change, nothing greater than $10,000.

It looks as if this drop may lead to a more balanced market in the near future.

GTA Resale Housing Market Moderate in May

TORONTO, May 20, 2008 -- Moderate sales and healthy price increases continued to characterize the Greater Toronto Area resale housing market during the first half of May, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

“With 4,422 sales throughout the GTA in the first two weeks of this month, activity has declined 12 per cent compared to the 5,003 homes sold during the first half of May 2007,” said Ms. O’Neill. “Prices however, continue to be strong, averaging $400,817 in the GTA, up six per cent from the $377,612 reported a year ago.”

n the City of Toronto, there were 1,734 sales, representing a 15 per cent decline from the 2,053 homes sold during the first half of May 2007 and an 11 per cent decline from the 1,941 homes sold during the same period in 2006. The average price in the 416 is $437,205, up six per cent from $412,701 a year ago.

In the 905 Region, there were 2,688 sales, down nine per cent from 2,950 a year ago but up four per cent from the same period in 2006. At $377,688, the average price is up seven per cent from the $353,192 recorded during the same timeframe in May of 2007.

Despite moderate sales overall, some neighbourhoods experienced heightened activity during the first half of May. The GTA is showing signs for a healthy 2008 compared to the diminished activity during the first quarter of 2008.

The Danforth (E03) saw sales increase 29 per cent overall compared to the same timeframe a year ago due to strong detached home sales.

Interest in detached homes also led Streetsville (W20) to a five percent overall sales increase compared to a year ago.

In the Annex (C02) transactions rose 39 per cent compared to the same period a year ago, driven by strong condominium apartment and detached home sales.

Richmond Hill South (N03) saw strong sales in most property types resulting in a three per cent increase compared to a year ago.

“In recent years, homebuyers have faced a major challenge with respect to limited selection,” said Ms. O’Neill.

“Now though, inventory is up 11 per cent compared to a year ago, which has resulted in more choice for home buyers and will be a positive effect on the quality of available listings.”
A wider selection from which to choose has also resulted in increased Days on Market, which has risen to 35 from last year's 28.

“The Greater Toronto Area offers a wide array of housing stock to fit almost any budget; I encourage anyone thinking of making a move to contact their REALTOR® to learn more about all of their options.”

Toronto REALTORS® are passionate about their work. They adhere to a strict code of ethics and share a state-ofthe-art Multiple Listing Service. Serving over 27,000 Members in the Greater Toronto Area, the Toronto Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board.

8,762 houses sold in the GTA in April 2008

April statistics show that 8,762 houses sold in the Greater Toronto Area. “The market continues to experience a supply and demand situation and to-date it remains a sellers market," said TREB President Maureen O’Neill.

The GTA market was down 7 per cent from last April’s record 9,452 transactions. However, it is showing signs for a healthy 2008 compared to the diminished activity during the first quarter of 2008.

The sales pace however, did not take place evenly throughout the GTA. With 3,467 transactions in the City of Toronto, sales were down 10 per cent from a year ago. The 905 region was down five per cent from April 2007 sales, with 5,295 homes changing hands.

Prices continued to appreciate last month, to a GTA average of $398,687, up five per cent from last April's $379,025. The average price in the City of Toronto was $446,781, up six per cent from April 2007. The 905 regionÕs average price of $367,196 increased five per cent from a year ago.

“For more than a decade, real estate has served as the economy’s engine,” said Ms. O’Neill. “It’s encouraging to see that consumers are continuing to put their faith in real estate as an excellent long-term investment.”

Breaking down the total, 3,398 sales were reported in TREB’s 28 West districts and averaged $372,575; 1,531 sales were reported in the 14 Central districts and averaged $539,133; 1,768 sales were reported in the 23 North districts and averaged $429,262; and 2,065 sales were reported in TREB’s 21 East districts and averaged $311,350.

Neighbourhood Corner 

Markham

There have been 1,172 sales in Markham (N01, N10, N11) during the first four months of 2008, with an average price of $453,630. The price is up eight per cent from the $417,818 recorded during the same period in 2007

Canada's Housing Boom Has Lasted Almost 10 Years

Canada's current housing boom is the strongest and longest in the country's history, and is still "remarkably buoyant," says Adrienne Warren, chief economist at Scotiabank. Despite the housing downturn in the United States, last year Canada set an all-time record for resale home sales. Most economists don't think 2008 will match those levels, but the market continues to be healthy across the country.
      "Between 1998 and 2007, average inflation-adjusted home prices have soared some 65 per cent, easily besting the 32 to 65 per cent appreciation of the prior three housing cycles of the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s," says Warren. "At their peak in 2005, U.S. real home prices had increased a cumulative 48 per cent from the 1995 trough."
      She says the current housing boom is "going on 10 years, whereas the prior three cycles ranged from five to six years. It has also outlasted the housing booms experienced in many other advanced economies this decade."
      A report by the Conference Board of Canada says that home prices in Canada have been rising continuously for the past 15 years.
      

The report, by Valérie Poulin, says the risk of softening prices in some markets in Canada is increasing. "On the one hand, fundamentals remain solid in Canada: unemployment is low, immigration is high, and the vacancy rate for apartments is low," says Poulin. "But on the other hand, years of relentless house price increases mean affordability is waning. At the same time, the risk of a U.S. recession is mounting, and Canadian economic growth is expected to weaken, particularly in Central Canada." She says those factors will cause some potential buyers to postpone their decisions to buy.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. predicts that house prices will grow by 5.2 per cent in 2008 -- a pretty good increase, but not as good as the 10.6 per cent growth seen last year. It says the number of MLS sales will fall off last year's record level by 3.9 per cent. National real estate firm Royal LePage expects a 3.5 per cent price increase, and a four per cent drop in resale activity.

On the new home front, "the housing market is now out of breath," says Poulin. "Satiated pent-up demand and slower economic growth is leading to what is expected will be a long slowdown in the housing market."

The Conference Board says building material costs are cutting into the residential construction industry's profits. "The U.S. housing market collapse has lead to surplus production in the wood industry, bringing lumber prices down," says Poulin. But she says that's offset by "double-digit economic growth in emerging markets and their insatiable appetite for commodities and resources," which is "cranking up energy and mineral prices." She says steel prices are up 15 per cent from their 2002 level, and cement is 16 per cent more than what it cost five years ago. Since 2002, increases in material costs have surpassed revenue growth for builders, and "with house affordability decreasing and new housing demand shrinking, contractors will be unable to pass all future price input hikes on to consumers," says Poulin.

Warren says that multi-family construction will perform better than the single-family new home market. "Renovation activity, which lags the trend in home resales by one to three years, will outperform new construction."

She says that from a supply standpoint, "Most Canadian (resale) markets are still in seller's territory, in which prices would be expected to rise faster than inflation. Yet, some of the hottest markets in recent years, including Edmonton, have become much better balanced due to a flood of new listings. Based on a combination of job growth, housing supply and affordability, among this year's potential outperformers are Saskatoon, Regina and Winnipeg in the west; Sudbury, Hamilton, and Quebec City in Central Canada, and St. John's to the east."

And what are the chances of a U.S.-style housing meltdown hitting Canada?

"Tighter lending guidelines for developers and a lower level of investor participation have reinforced a more cautious approach among home builders," says Warren. "Households, for their part, are not over leveraged. Home equity as a share of real estate assets has been steadily building this decade, as price appreciation outpaces the rise in mortgage obligations. Canadian households also have little direct exposure to sub-prime lending, which has accounted for only about five per cent of domestic mortgages in recent years, compared to over 20 per cent in the United States."

However, Warren says a deeper U.S. downturn would hurt Canada's economy, particularly in Central Canada, and could have a larger than expected impact on real estate activity.

Written by Jim Adair

Toronto Real Estate Board says GTA resale housing market still down

TORONTO, March 19, 2008 -- Resale home transactions in the Greater Toronto Area continued at a moderate pace during the first half of March, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

With 3,183 transactions to mid-month, sales in the GTA and in Toronto declined 14 per cent and 18 per cent respectively compared to the same timeframe a year ago.

“It’s important to recognize that we have endured the snowiest winter since 1939 and this has undoubtedly affected the market,” said Ms. O’Neill. “The storm that pounded the GTA during the second weekend of March likely had more people focused on shoveling sidewalks than house hunting.”

Despite moderate activity, the value of homes in our city continues to appreciate. At an average of $385,405 in the GTA and $409,116 in Toronto, prices have increased five and four per cent respectively compared to a year ago.

As well, some neighbourhoods experienced an increase in activity during the first half of March.

At the North end of the Greater Toronto Area, Georgina (N17) experienced a 39 per cent increase in sales during the first half of March, driven mainly by detached home transactions.

The Agincourt area of Scarborough (E07) experienced a 12 per cent overall increase in sales compared to a year ago based primarily on strong condominium apartment sales.
Strong condominium apartment sales also allowed the Weston area in York (W04) to hold strong, with a 28 per cent overall increase compared to a year ago.

Toronto's Downtown core (C01) has also experienced healthy sales activity so far this month, due to strong condominium apartment sales as well. Overall sales in this area were up 11 per cent compared to a year ago.

“Condominium apartments have weathered the winter best so far this year, with 733 sales to date but we remain confident that once the snow has melted, we will see a very active spring market overall,” said Ms. O’Neill. “The land transfer tax in Toronto concerns us and we continue to keep a watchful eye on how this tax plays out in the market.”.

Toronto home sales on pace for a record year - The National Post

Get out your cheque books, Toronto Existing home sales in Toronto are on pace for a record year, led by the red-hot condominium sector, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board. The TREB said 6,866 homes changed hands last month, a 4% jump from a year ago. For the first nine months of the year, Toronto real estate sales are up 11% from the record-breaking year the market had in 2005.

The Post's Gary Marr reports:
“I’m encouraged by the September we had. Economists expected we’d have a strong market but a soft landing. It just doesn’t look like that is happening,” said Maureen O’Neill, president of the board. “The figures we are now seeing are just astounding us.”

It’s still a bit too early to say whether the Toronto market will set a record. “I don’t have a crystal ball. However all the indicators, the interest rates, the inflation and the immigration are all showing so strong  I can’t foresee anything but a strong year.”

Condominium sales continue to drive the market, with that segment accounting for almost a quarter of all sales. “They are digging everywhere in this city. The developers don’t seem to be worried about a glut,” Ms. O’Neill said.

Prices also rebounded sharply last month after dropping in August. The TREB said the average sale price in city last month was $380,132,  a 5% increase from August. For the year, increases were a little more modest. The average sale price over the first nine months of the year was $371,848, a 5% increase from the same period a year earlier.

“It’s a nice increase considering where the average price already is. A one-month increase is not a big deal. I’d be more comfortable if we had three or months in a row of increases,” said Ms. O’Neill, adding prices usually drop in August because of a lack of buyers in the marketplace over the summer.

Million-dollar homes made up a very small segment of sales, with 149 falling into that category. The most popular price range across the city was $300,000 to $400,000, with 27.6% selling in that category.

The most expensive district in the city to buy a home was C9, the area bounded by Yonge Street, Bayview Avenue, Bloor Street  and St. Clair Avenue. The average sale price in that area, which includes posh Rosedale, was $2,190,237. Ms. O’Neill cautioned the Toronto market could still face peril if the city goes ahead with a plan backed by Mayor David Miller to impose a land-transfer tax on homes. “We hope the City of Toronto doesn’t jeopardize this market by imposing this second tax,” she said. The province already imposes a land-transfer tax. “The taxes on a $1.6-million would double. If you were paying $32,000 in taxes [to transfer ownership], you are now are paying $64,000. The people buying homes would subsidize everybody else’s tax burden.”

Ultimately, she added, it could make existing homes worth less because of the tax implication that occur following a sale.

Information taken from the National Post

http://communities.canada.com/nationalpost/blogs/toronto/archive/2007/10/03/toronto-home-sales-on-pace-for-record-year.aspx 

Autumn Market Going Strong - TREB

TORONTO, September 19, 2007 -- With 3,236 sales so far this month, re-sale housing activity has increased 11 per cent as compared to the first half of September 2006, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.The past five consecutive months have been record-breakers and September is on track to follow suit. It is four per cent ahead of the 3,112 recorded during the first half of September 2005, which became the best September ever. “Some economists who predicted a soft landing may have to revise their forecasts, said O’Neill. The real estate market continues to prove its strength month after month. There simply is no better investment.”  The average price for a home in the Greater Toronto Area currently stands at $364,364, an increase of nine per cent compared to first half of September 2006.  Neighbourhoods throughout the Greater Toronto Area reported strong sales in the first two weeks of this month.

The High Park area of Toronto (W2) saw twice as many sales compared to mid-September 2006, due to a sizeable increase in the sale of semi-detached homes.  West Agincourt in Scarborough (E04) saw 51 per cent more homes sell in the first half of September compared to the same timeframe a year ago, showing strength in all housing categories.In the downtown core (C01), condo-apartment activity pushed the area’s overall total 40 per cent higher than sales to mid-September 2006. Condominiums were also the driving force behind a 29 per cent increase in overall mid-month sales in South Richmond Hill (N03).“The market is showing strength in a wide range of neighbourhoods and housing types, said O’Neill.We’re seeing strong activity and stable price growth so there is a lot to be positive about.”